Monday 11 November 2013

Question 2: Probability

2. Suppose p is number of cars per minute passing through a certain road junction between 5 PM and 6PM, and p has a Poisson distribution with mean 3. What is the probability of observing fewer than 3 cars during any given minute in this interval?

A. 8/(2e^3)
B. 9/(2e^3)
C. 17/(2e^3)
D. 26/(2e^3)

Ans : (C)

Explanation :

Formula for Poisson distribution P(p = n) = (e^-u)(u^n)/n!

Here, Mean is 3. i.e., u = 3

Probability of observing fewer than 3 cars is = P(p < 3)
P(p < 3) =  P(p = 0) + P(p = 1) + P(p = 2)
              = (e^-3) (3^0)/0! + (e^-3) (3^1)/1! + (e^-3) (3^2)/2!
              = (e^-3) + (e^-3)(3)/(1) + (e^-3) (9)/(2)
              = (1+3+(9/2)) (e^-3)
              = 17/2e^3

Hence the answer is C.



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